Sunday, July 18, 2021

Self awareness and layers of intentions

Self-awareness is the process of discovering deeper levels of intentions. Whenever we are disturbed and feel an urge to respond or act on a stimulus we need to introspect about what is it that has disturbed me and is giving me this urge to respond. 
Our response should be based on حسن ظن and not being judgmental because the facts may be wrong or our perspective may be faulty. This is highlighted by the three examples given in the Pic. 

But, more importantly our holier-than-thou feeling that produces this urge to respond may itself have deeper issues that require self awareness and self introspection. 

We need to first identify the intention behind any action (or its contemplation). The first reason that comes to our mind represents the first level of intention. Below the first level intention is another level of intention. Below the second level of our intention there may be another level of intention. We need to peel off these succesive layers of intentions before we discover the core intention that is giving rise to upper levels of intentions. This deepest core intention is most often a fundamental, most disturbing, weakness in us, that we are hiding with our upper level (lesser disturbing) intentions.

This is how I analyze each event that disturbs me
Q: I think there is a layer below the intentions which give meaning to reality, or forming a perception, to which we intend to responding ...

Thursday, July 15, 2021

Elegance, Love and Principles in Roman Holiday

One of the most memorable endings of a movie.
I have thought a lot about the emotions and feelings generated by this movie since my early school days. 

First saw this movie in 1971-72 on PTV. Then in 1983-84 on projector at American Center audi (adjacent to Marriott) during classic films festival. Then in 1988 on videocassette checked out from movie collection at UGL in UT Austin, and later at KBVO channel 42. Then a couple of times in early 1990s rented from Blockbuster Videos in Austin. Then bought the videocassette in late 1990s and a couple of times. And watched it several times with each of my children during 2000s. And of course with CDs and now online at least once every other year.

Happiness and Forgive and Forget Rule

Forgive and forget rule for happiness! 
The question to ask is whether you want to be happy or not!
اے شمع تیری عمر طبیعی ہے ایک رات 
ہنس کر گزار یا اسے رو کر گزار دے
 
Holding a grudge and protecting it is like carrying stale foul smelling tomatoes for long periods and not throwing them away despite their stench.

وہ اچھا سلوک جو آپ نے دوسروں کے ساتھ کیا اس کا بھولنا اس    حکمت میں پوشیدہ ہے: "نیکی کر دریا میں ڈال"  اور "احسانمند کے شر سے ڈرو"

Sunday, July 4, 2021

How to Identify Synthesis in the tables of your PhD Literature Survey

Instructions to my PhD students:
Please note that The taxonomy master and taxonomy detail are only a "structured" way of organizing the information and identifying "codes" and discovering "themes and categories". It is a tool to help you identify the literature support that leads to your PS.

You need to transform this structured information into distilled tables where individual papers at max could be in footnotes.

We discussed in class the tables used by Dr Omar Javaid and Dr Junaid Ansari dissertations tables in the chapter on literature survey. The dissertations are in lms.

You need to design those kinds of tables that fit the thrust of your paper areas.

Most of you have been asked to change/make these tables.

Readings course is about digestion of papers that you have reviewed. When there is indigestion you throw up. You can identify in the undigested food crumbs that you had thrown up, the individual ingredients such as bread, tomato, beef,.. [sorry for the example¦.
Hence when I see reference to "individual" paper Id as column headings or row headings, it is a sign of "undigested" food ingredients.
Your rows and column cells should contain entries that "refer" to multiple papers (group of papers, set of papers, or category of papers) rather to individual papers. Similarly, sentences in your literature survey should be referring to multiple papers. I gave you the dissertations of Dr Junaid and Dr Omar to see the sample tables. But, many of you except Anam Qamar did not get this point.
This synthesis vs listing, digestion, and referring to group of papers instead of individual papers is mentioned clearly in my blogs, in my course outline, repeatedly in my class lectures and in my each viva session.
Even the student whose sample paper was sent to you, had to go through couple of revisions before she got it right. But she did it quickly. I am maintaining an excel where I am maintaining the instructions. Students are either not understanding this or are not putting enough time? Please send this to others and make sure everyone reads.

Tables in your literature survey must be connected to the direction of your research. I.e should be leading to your eventual PS, TS, Or methodology. The final Tables in the paper are not there to show a summary of what individual papers did. The tables are there to highlight the wisdom that you extracted from the survey that is serving as a beacon illuminating the way towards your PS and TS. Any table that is not connected with the direction of research should be modified or taken out.

Saturday, June 12, 2021

The Art of Gentle and Soft Persuasion- Dr Zahir Ali Syed

Dr Zahir Ali Syed, Director of UIT (Usman Institute of Technology), was plucked from us yesterday June 11, 2021, in a murderous event reminding Karachites of how Hakim Saeed was taken away from us in a terrorist murder some 25 years ago. Inna lillah e wa inna ilaihi rajioon!

Saturday, May 29, 2021

Fauqul Chacha and Family Help

I knew them both and their father Fauqul Hasan Zaidi. Fauqul chacha will regularly drop at our place for morning tea with my father and mother during his break journey on his way from his home in F-6/1 to his office in old state bank building which was being used as parliament building temporarily during 1970s. Had heard of wonderful stories of his adventures in Bengal and in Northern Pakistan

We are greatly indebted to marhoom  Rashid Bhai s/o Fauqul Hasan Zaidi for his great support and help in arranging the logistics of wedding food arrangements of my two eldest sisters Farida apa n Ghufaira apa. Farida apa with Rafi Uddin Haider in 1975 and Ghufaira apa with Misbah ahmed Zaidi s/o Fiza A Zaidi in 1977. I was in school during those days. There didn't use to be caterers of the type available today who do everything and just deliver the food on time at the event. In those days there used to be only cooks (bawarchi).  It was the responsibility of event organizers to arrange for utensils, gosht, chawal, masalay, ghee,....  Individually each ingredient had to be purchased separately, utensils rented, cooking burners set up and made available at the site. Cooks would simply come on the day, prepare n ground masalay and cook the food. Food was prepared at site by the cooks.
The entire food logistics of the two marriage functions was supervised by Rashid Bhai the great. May Allah give him the best of abodes in the hereafter. Aameen

Rise and Fall of Dictators and Kings: Delusions of Grandeur by Neocolonialism Forces

Last Shah of Iran

How the kings are installed and propped by the great powers;

Just finished seeing this BBC documentary about the shah of Iran whose pompousness we grew up with. I remember waiting for hours on the Chaklala road to airport in 1967 to catch a glimpse of the motorcade. But, I was too young (around 5) for the wait, and left early and later came to know that his motorcade has passed. Witnessed Murree Road being renamed as Raza Shah Pehalvi Road and after his debacle again being renamed Murree Road. There was such pomp and show in the newspapers about his his 2500 years coronation ceremonies, read about the intrigue and the stories of his previous wives and current wives in Jang. Also, saw the yearly pictures of his heir being groomed to take over his crown. The heir's ascent was short circuited by the Iranian Revolution. The documentary made me recall the story of the womanizer and drunkard dictator of Pakistan peeing in the flower pots during the 2500 year coronation celebrations, and the dictator getting slapped by a lady in the royal feast. I recalled the stories of lavishness of Shah, his blind following of the West, and the wholescale adoption and imposition of foreign culture on the poor Iranians. Western powers that brought him also left him high and dry after the revolution when he was moving in his airplane from country to country till eventually  was sent to Egypt to spend his last days. The daily stories of scores people being shot after the revolution reminded me of the reign of terror in France after the French revolution. 

The king was a fool made to think that he had divine right to rule, propped by US/British advisors, bent upon robbing the aspirations of poor third world countries. How this project of "modernization' at the expense of people's aspirations gets implemented. It reminded me of the puppet Last Emperor of China. How history and reality catches up with reality. Now people don't even remember or recall his artificial glory. 

Idi Amin:

The pomposity with which he came to the Islamic Summit in 1973. We thought as children then that he was much cherished by his people. His rise and fall happened in front of my eyes in the 1970s. His portrayal in Last King of Scotland tells us of the artificial pomp of the dictators, shahs and sheiks propped up by Western powers to satisfy their neocolonialism agenda. When a few years ago I went to Uganda I realized how destructive these stooges are in the developing countries. The plight of Idi Amin in an Egyptian hospital where he breathed his last was well captured by Javed Chaudhry in one of his columns. https://m.facebook.com/permalink.php?id=474290666706912&story_fbid=491247315011247


Anwar us Sadat



Qaddafi



Hosni Mubarak



Saddam Husain



Gen Ayub



Gen Yahya



Gen Zia



Gen Musharraf

Saturday, May 22, 2021

Leadership Style of Imran Khan as Cricket Captain and as Prime Minister

Imran Khan leadership style:
Is IK trying to run the country exactly as he ran the captaincy of Pakistan cricket team?  Favoritism in picking up players, holding of personal grudges against fellow players, and being vindictive against those who dared to disagree with him. Habit of making arbitrary and adhoc decisions, which worked in cricket because cricket is largely a game that depends too much on indidual brilliance. Cricket is a game where a team's spectacular performance is often a chance; a coincidence of glorious uncertainties when a few individuals happen to click together to produce scintillating results....

A comment on the following Pic of my post :
"It is reputed that during 1992 world cup, he had personal grudge with Jawed Miandad. He did not take him in his team. When Pakistan lost first three round matches, then he called Miandad. He had ruined the careers of Basit Ali, Qasim Umer and many others. He is considered to hate Karachaits. Very highly egoistic. He always promoted the players who belonged to Punjab. He is still maintaining the quota system, whereas he gives the examples of meritocracy. "
Need references to this quote above.

" Reading the earlier of his two autobiographies suggests that Imran was anything but a pleasant youngster. He seems to have been petulant, arrogant and a very bad loser, something at which he had plenty of practice where cricket was concerned. "
[From Imran Khan: Made in England by Martin Chandler https://www.cricketweb.net/imran-khan-made-in-england/]

" Imran was honest enough to write of himself; The 1971 tour party to England contained one player who must surely rank as the rawest, most conceited cricketer ever to represent his country. At the start of the tour he had problems with his run up and found it difficult to control the swing of the ball in English conditions and after just eight expensive wickets he was in no form at all going into the first Test. In fact had it not been for injuries to Salim and Sarfraz he would have been nowhere near the side and he was selected only by dint of Pakistan quite literally having no other option." [Source IK's first book]

Disclaimer:
No one is disputing IK's individual brilliance in bowling (especially his in cutters) and his batting. I have also been his admirer as a cricketer. Here we are only comparing IK's leadership style as the captain of cricket team and his leadership style as a PM. There are several common traits of his personality that are now visible and also comparable.

My Interest in Cricket:
I have been listening/watching cricket since 1972. Have read all cricket related news from 1973 till 1990s published in Dawn and Jang. Had a collection of The Cricketer magazine of 1970s and 1980s. I have read books written by Bradman, Illingworth and also Imran. I was listening to international test matches worldwide on shortwave radios in 1970s and 1980s. For example, I listened to centenary test between England and Australia in 1976-77 where Randall scored a century. Used to go regularly to British Council to read Cricketer International in 1980s. Have read several articles of famous cricket writers such as the legendary John Arlott. I used to have a collection of urdu cricketer magazine. Watched and followed Kerry pecker saga.l of late 1970s where IK blossomed. I read about IK's learnings from South African Mike Proctor and others. Remember this was all pre internet/YouTube...there after the match fixing turned me off the cricket.

Sunday, May 16, 2021

How Legacy is Transmitted over Generations: Case Study of Ikram Hyder

During lock down I was organizing the old stuff left by my father. In that I found some papers in old dilapidated state, crumpled. On closer inspection I found them belonging to my grandfather's father. Till this time I had only seen a Pic of my grand father's father in a Pic of my father's graduation in 1930s. The person in white beard. On greater inspection I found that he belonged to naqshbandi silsila. in those papers there were his منظوم صوفیانہ کلام dating back to 1880s. The Kalam is in Arabic, Persian and urdu. It has been a great excavation and curating experience. No one in the family today seemed to be aware of this treasure or the spiritual life of my grandfather's father. My father did not share this and we did not ask him. He had been too reticent about his life before partition. It was too painful. But now I could see the connection of ethical and spiritual values of my grandfather's father with the strong character, truthfulness, morals, principles of my father, uncle, and three of my father's cousins standing in this Pic. I could see the strong influence of these values in their life with this lineage. I can now connect many of my personality traits with those spiritual teachings which I stumbled on in these papers. I could see those values alive and kicking within my siblings and cousins....
Life is insignificant (in khasara) except for those who believed, did good deeds, promoted Haq and enjoined sabr. The good deeds and tarbiyat of our parents spreads through our actions and good deeds and the tarbiyat that we do of our children. We may not know the name of our great grandfathers, but their legacy of good deeds got transmitted to our grandparents and from them to our parents and from them to our children and inshallah to our children's children and then on and on, inshallah. Names and places are forgotten by mortals but the good deeds live on and their contribution would be counted and tallied on the day of judgements by the omniscient Allah.

Saturday, May 15, 2021

Visit to Baba KhorwaRi Shrine Ziarat

I had experience of meeting someone who predicted the rain fall time precisely. It was 1983 in ziarat, our NED batch mates of 1980-85 were on the study trip of Pakistan. We were around 200 students in three compartments that was attached to different trains and detached at various stations in the city for a few days while we visit places. We reached in July to Quetta and the compartments were detached at the Quetta station. After visiting a few places we went to Ziarat in three buses. We reached there around 12-1pm. As the students were waiting for lunch we started exploring the area. About 5 of us got more excited when we asked about places to visit and someone told us about a track leading to the shrine of Baba Kharwariz. We ventured towards Baba Kharwari's Mazar via mountaneous trek through a forest. We were told that it was a 20 minutes distance rural distance. We went along for 30-40 minutes. Each local wayfarer on the way, we asked how far is the shirne and he would tell us it was just a few minutes ahead. Those few minutes on and on became half an hour, and then another half an hour. It was around 245pm when we asked yet another local who was passing by, he looked at the sky which was then clear and then he looked at his watch. He then advised us to return. He warned us that there would be thunderstorm and rain at 3pm. The path would be filled with flash floods and then it would be difficult for us to return. We ignored him because it was sunny and clear and there were no signs of any clouds. But in around 5 minutes we saw some ominously threatening clouds moving towards us. Another 5 minutes and we could hear their grumbling. We got scared by the thunder and the impending darkness and decided to return. Initially we were just walking, but then it became dark, the clouds came so near, and the lightening and thunder became severe. Lo and behold as we neared 3pm it became dark and we started running. At 3pm there started vicious rain. The trek path soon resembled a stream and then a torrent. We started running as fast as we could. We were afraid of the intensity of the flash floods and were fearful that we would swept by the torrents. Soon we were fully drenched and running for our lives. By the time we reached the road, we were thoroughly drained, drenched, and fighting for breath...
Rest is another story



Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Economic Hit of Pakistan: CAD Focus vs GDP Neglect

CAD focus vs GDP neglect (IKnomics Hit) :
"کرنٹ اکاؤنٹ خسارہ" CAD:  ایک صاحب کی دکان خسارہ میں چل رہی تھی- ایک دن انہوں نے فاتحانہ اعلان کیا کہ پچھلے مہینہ انہوں نے CAD خسارہ پر قابو پا لیا! پوچھا وہ کیسے؟ فرمایا "بڑا آسان تھا، بس دکان بند کر دی، تمام ملازمیں کو فارغ کر دیا، تمام ضروری اور غیر ضروری اخراجات بھی ختم کر دئے، کرنٹ خسارہ زیرو!"

جی ڈی پی GDP گروتھ:
ایک صاحب کی دکان خسارہ میں چل رہی تھی- ایک دن انہوں نے فاتحانہ اعلان کیا کہ انہوں نے CAD خسارہ پر قابو پا لیا! پوچھا وہ کیسے؟ فرمایا "بڑا مشکل اور تکلیف دہ تھا، میں نے ایکسپرٹس سے مشورہ کر کے اپنے بوسیدہ سسٹمز کو تبدیل کرنے کا فیصلہ کیا، اس انویسٹمنٹ کے لئے مجھے  قرضہ لینا پڑا جس سے نئے سسٹمز خریدے اور دو سال لگا کر تمام بوسیدہ سسٹمز تبدیل کئے، فضول اخراجات ختم کئے، پراسیسز آسان کئے، اب میرے کسٹمرز بھی خوش ہیں ان کو بہترین پراڈکٹس کم قیمت پر، کم وقت میں آسانی سے دستیاب ہیں، کاروبار میں اضافہ ہوا، نئی پراڈکٹ لائنز شروع کیں، ملازمین کی تنخواہوں میں اضافہ ہوا، نئے ملازمین کو جاب دیں،  کرنٹ خسارہ منافع میں تبدیل ہو گیا!"
Over the last 3 years IKnomics policies has crippled the economy whilst propoganda machine trumpets false economic principles related to magical properties of CAD while denigrating GDP.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, GDP functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country's economic health. It encapsulates growth in economy due to growth of business, production, services, and the resultant employment opportunities.

On the other hand, Current Account Deficit or CAD is the difference between the money coming in due to exports and the money going out due to imports. It is no where in world  used as indicator of economic health of country. CAD only tells you about the ability to service external debt, as such it is only in Pakistan's IMF dictated "IKnomics" that CAD was used for measuring health of Pakistan economy during first 3 years of IK with disastrous consequences.

The single minded focus on IMF CAD related policies were responsible for the crash of GDP from 5.8% to - 0.4%, reduction in jobs over the last three years by over 5 million, and increase in inflation (too much money chasing too few goods), and hemorrhage of economic sentiments.

IK should have curtailed luxury imports without impacting raw materials for our production. Instead of clamping down hard on smuggling and significantly increasing duties on luxury items, IK tremendously increased the exchange rate and utilities costs while simultaneously going after the small and micro businesses, which resulted in decrease in production and increase in prices of all  the inputs, increasing the prices of outputs, reducing the viability of many businesses and their shutting down. 

Ability to service debt is measured as a percentage of the productivity of economy (i.e GDP). A country with high GDP growth can sustain larger debt. This is similar to a person earning 100k can service a larger debt than a person earning only 10k. There are several countries with higher debt to GDP then pakistan but that is not a problem for them. For example Japan has around 200% whereas Pakistan is around 50%. Over here IK increased the policy rate to 13.5% that made the local debt servicing the largest single item of our expenditure around half of all expenditure even more than military expenditure!

One must read the history of how government investment in infrastructure (GDP growth ) got USA out of the global Great Depression. This came to be known as Keynesian Economics that is taught in every Economics 101 course in the chapter on overcoming recession. See this 
https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a24692/fdr-new-deal-wpa-infrastructure/

How Economic Hit through policy rate increase happened

How Economic Hitmen duped IK's policy to astronomically increase the loan interest burden on Pakistanis. 

1. By increasing the policy rate from around 5% to 13.5% after tabdeeli, IK government doubled the interest payments (markup expense) to nearly half of the total expenditure. That is double of what was being spent during previous regime. 
2. Markup suddenly became the single largest outlay even more than the entire military expenditure and military pensions. 
3. To compensate for this, government had to stop/slow down all development expenditures, was forced to increase the utility rates and petrol prices, thereby severely decreasing the GDP and employment. 
4. SBP demand based rationale was that higher policy rates will reduce inflation. However, inflation in Pakistan skyrocketed to around 12-14%. SBP demand rationale was contrary to the cost rationale emerging worldwide where countries like Brazil had by decreasing the policy rate decreased their inflation. Ironically , SBP website shows research papers which also establish that Pakistan's inflation will decrease with decreasing policy rate. 
5. The myth sold to Pakistan through the Economic hit media brigade that Pakistan has too much debt. This is again contrary to the fact that many of the countries around the world have even hundred percent to 200 percent debt to GDP ratio, and they are not having such problems. Analysis shows that it is not the higher debt, but the higher policy rates which creates the burden. Most of the countries that have higher debt to GDP ratio than Pakistan have policy rate of less than 2% , in some cases even negative policy rates. Pakistan suffered because of high policy rates not because of high debt. 
Do you know that yearly pensions expenditure of government is as large as the yearly civil government expenditure.

یہ کسی صحافی یا نو آموز سیاستدان کے سطحی خیالات پر مبنی رائے نہیں، عرصہ دراز تک لٹریچر کو پڑھنے، سمجھنے، اور خود سے تاریخی ڈیٹا کا تجزیہ کرنے کے بعد پوری ذمہ داری سے لکھا گیا تبصرہ ہے۔ اس میں مذکور ہر انفارمیشن کی صداقت ثابت کرنا میری ذمہ داری ہے، اور اس مختصر نوٹ میں جن آرا کا اظہار کیا گیا ہے ان کے لئے دنیا بھر میں بے شمار واقعاتی شواہد موجود ہیں جن کا ثبوت دینا میری ذمہ داری ہے۔ اپنے اپنے حلقہ احباب میں جو لوگ سیاست یا پالیسی سازی میں کردار ادا کر سکتے ہوں، ان تک یہ حقائق پہنچا دیجیے۔ اللہ ہمیں اس ملک کی بہتری کے لیے کردار ادا کرنے کی توفیق دے

ڈاکٹر عتیق الرحمن

1. پاکستان میں بجٹ اخراجات کی سب سے بڑی مد اندرون ملکی قرض پر سود کی ادائیگی ہے۔ اس مد پر رواں مالی سال میں 2631 ارب خرچ ہوئے، جبکہ آمدہ مالی سال میں اس سے زیادہ اخراجات کا تخمینہ ہے
2. اخراجات کے اس قدر زیادہ ہونے کی وجہ پاکستان میں سرکاری شرح سود یعنی پالیسی ریٹ کا بہت زیادہ ہونا ہے۔ اس وقت پاکستان میں پالیسی ریٹ 7 فیصد ہے جبکہ امریکہ میں پالیسی ریٹ محض 0.25 فیصد، اور تھائی لینڈ میں 0.5 فیصد ہے

3. اگر پاکستان میں پالیسی ریٹ امریکہ والی سطح پر چلا جائے تو پاکستان کو سود کی ادائیگی کے لیے محض 100 ارب کی رقم درکار ہو گی۔ یعنی 2500 ارب کی بچت ممکن ہے۔
4. سٹیٹ بینک اف پاکستان کے مطابق شرح سود بلند رکھنے کی وجہ افراط زر پر قابو پانا ہے۔ سٹیٹ بینک کے مطابق اگر شرح سود میں کمی کی گئی تو ملک میں مہنگائی میں بیحد اضافہ ہو جائے گا
5. سٹیٹ بینک کا یہ مفروضہ دنیا بھر میں غلط ثابت ہو چکا ہے۔ کرونا بحران سے نمٹنے کے لیے دنیا بھر میں شرح سود میں کمی کی گئی، جب کہ کہیں بھی اس اقدام کی وجہ سے مہنگائی میں اضافہ نہیں ہوا
6. سٹیٹ بینک کے پاس ایسی کوئی دستاویزی /تاریخی شہادت موجود نہیں جو یہ ثابت کر سکے کہ واقعی شرح سود میں کمی سے مہنگائی ہوتی ہے۔ پاکستان میں تاریخی شہادتیں اس مفروضہ کے خلاف ہیں
7. اس لئے گذارش ہے کہ سٹیٹ بینک کو اس بات کا پابند کیا جائے کہ وہ تاریخی ڈیٹا سے بلند شرح سود کی افادیت کا ثبوت فراہم کرے

8. اگر سٹیٹ بینک کے پاس ایسی کوئی دستاویزی شہادت موجود نہیں جو اتنی بلند شرح سود کی افادیت ثابت کر سکے، تو شرح سود کو عالمی معیار کے مطابق 1 فیصد پر لایا جائے

9. شرح سود کو 1 فیصد پر لانے سے 2200 ارب سالانہ کی بچت ممکن ہے۔ اس طرح ایک سال میں ہونے والی بچت دفاعی بجٹ کے دگنا کے قریب ہو گی
10. شرح سود کو کم کرنے سے سرکاری قرض پر سود کی رقم میں کمی کے علاوہ کاروبار کے لیے قرض سستے ریٹ پر دستیاب ہوگا، جس سے کاروباری سرگرمیوں کو فروغ ملے گا