Sunday, December 29, 2019

Faulty BISP Beneficiaries Analysis. Use of Proxies in Data Analytics

Faulty assumptions of BISP research led to faulty conclusions:
We must need to question the faulty research assumptions of BISP Benazir Support Program Research Study that is being promoted on social media without requisite critical analysis. Over 8lac people have been identified that are being classified as "rich"  without the necessary and rigorous research methodology and analysis. The research has used some raw data plucked from random sources without rigorous analysis, validation and triangulation of the data. 

The use of data analytics,  however,  is a good beginning and like all tools need to be used with care and proper training. This is a good case study of faulty research assumptions for MPhil/PhD researchers that often lead to faulty conclusions:. 
بے نظیر پروگرام ریسرچ مفروضہ-1:
کیا NADRA کے ایگزیکٹو سنٹرز سے cnic بنوانے والے سارے امیر لوگ ہوتے ہیں؟ کیا آپ نے وہاں مزدور نہیں دیکھے؟ کیا غرہب، بیمار اور بوڑھے لوگ لمبی خواری سے بچنے کیلئے ایگزیکٹو سنٹرز نہیں جاتے؟ 

بے نظیر پروگرام ریسرچ مفروضہ-2:
کیابیرون ملک سفر کرنے والے غریب مزدور نہیں ہوتے؟ کیا واپس آنے والے سارے مزدور امیر ہو جاتے ہیں؟ کیا آپ نے ان کے استحصال کی دلخراش کہانیاں نہیں سنیں! جن سے وہاں بیگار میں سالوں کام کروایا گیا؟  میں کئی لوگوں سے ملا ہوں جو کئ سال بعد واپس آئے ہیں یا واپس بھیج دئیے گئے ہیں، اور اب اپنی ذندگی دوبارہ شروع کر رہے ہیں- کچھ ساز و سامان انہوں نے اچھے وقتوں میں خرید لیا مگر بدلے ہوئے حالات میں کرائے کی ٹیکسی چلا رہے ہیں-

بے نظیر پروگرام ریسرچ مفروضہ-3:
کیا ہر موٹر سائیکل خریدنے والا امیر ہوتا ہے؟ کیا موٹر سائیکل خریدنے والے مزدور یا فوڈ ڈلیوری والے نہیں ہوتے؟ کیا موٹر سائیکل 2ہزار روپے مہینہ قسط پر نہیں ملتی تھی؟ کئ لوگوں سے ملا ہوں جنہوں نے کسی طرح موٹر سائیکل خرید لی ہے اور اب اس کے زریعے معاش تلاش کر رہے ہیں- آج کل موٹر سائیکل ٹھیلے کی جگہ بن گئ ہے-
Do you think that all Food panda/Bykea riders are rich? Do you think all taxi-drivers/rickshaw drivers are rich? Do you know what is the daily rent that a yellow cab driver pays to the owner of the yellow cab/rickshaw? Do you think the Uber driver who drives professionally is rich? Many of them may have brought the car/bike on installments. 

There can be similar critique of other parameters selected in this study:

The collected data is known as proxy data. Please ask any econometric and social science researcher how this data needs to be qualified with other demographic data before it could be gainfully used to pluck out those unworthy of government support. 

This measure indicates also that it is deriving Sadistic Pleasure from stopping the paltry amount of 1500-2000 rupees being disbursed to over 8lac people. Just see the ridiculousness and shameful irony:
بے نظیر انکم پروگرام سے ملنے والی دو ہزار روپے ماہانہ کی "خطیر" رقم پر "عیاشی" کرنے والے لاکھوں  لوگوں کا ناطقہ بند کر کے حکومت اب بیرونی قرضوں پر لات مارے گی، موج اڑائے گی

What a shameful sadism. 

Dr Irfan Hyder

Sunday, December 15, 2019

What Economic and Political Circumstances Led to Secession of East Pakistan


 [To understand the context of this post, please read At What Cost! Why Compute Economic Costs of Faulty Political Decisions]

Pakistani Decision Makers should have their Skin in the Game


[To understand the context of this post, please read At What Cost! Why Compute Economic Costs of Faulty Political Decisions]

A Jog Down the Memory Lane

A Jog down the memory lane

Yesterday I took a stroll down the fields on the farm in Tumair. Moving from the small cozy cottage on the east side of the farm land towards the north-west corner where the work was in progress to build a water reservoir. This is barani land, where people have been growing crops such as corn and wheat for ages. These crops only require the seasonal rain pattern. As the farm lodgings begin to take shape we are still groping for a water solution. Without water, landscaping and growing of the plants we want is difficult. Although, rain in Islamabad is plentiful, the water needs to be stored in reservoirs. [2007-04-28]



Wednesday, December 11, 2019

How I learned the Craft of Book Binding

I learned book binding جلد بندی from my relative Ehtisham Haider Chacha (منّو چچا) . I went with him to Raja Bazar, Rawalpindi  in 1975-76 when I was in 8th class and living in Islamabad. He helped me buy the needle, thick thread, and glossy paper sheet, scissors,  etc. He then taught me how to prepare home made glue (میدہ کی لئی ), make holes in the book, thread the book with needle, attach thick card from used  hard binding of copies,  tie it to the thread, cut it, put the spine cloth, glue it and paste the glossy paper. I used this skill to bind hundreds of books in my home collection. I still have a few of those bound books with me. Unfortunately I could not get the opportunity to graduate to the finer art of جزو بندی which is a more involved craft requiring sewing with fine thread different parts (جزو)  of the book.
See the sewing of one of the binding that is exposed of this book

Sunday, December 8, 2019

Where to Download Books for Free and Legally



45 places you can download tens of thousands books, plays and other literary texts completely legally for free

stacks

Friday, November 22, 2019

Dismissals of Civilian Prime Ministers in Pakistan by DoN Doctrine of Necessity Godfathers

[To understand the context of this post, please read At What Cost! Why Compute Economic Costs of Faulty Political Decisions]
Doctrine of Necessity (DoN) sword had been used to repeatedly dismiss civilian prime ministers of Pakistan prematurely, since 1950s. The DoN godfathers have played the role of 1st umpire, 2nd umpire and 3rd umpire interchangeably in ensuring that the civilian prime ministers are never able to complete their terms peacefully. These dismissals have now been documented in several places such as History of Judiciary of Pakistan and also in books by several generals.  
The objective of neocolonialism is to keep the third world countries perpetually in ICU so that they are never able to challenge their hegemony and remain a pliant consumer of their produce. None of the third world countries especially the Muslim Countries have been able to establish strong democratic credentials that can help them serve their people. Today's Pakistan is now totally subservient to IMF/World Bank and their tool FATF and once again in the service of its neocolonialism masters.
Judiciary (J), Bureaucracy (B), Establishment(E) taking turns as 1st, 2nd , 3rd Umpire for keeping Pakistan perpetually in ICU.


References (Being Updated): 

Year
Dismissed PMs
1st Umpire
2nd Umpire
3rd Umpire














Tuesday, November 5, 2019

How to Build Confidence in Children: Climbing the Trees and Getting out of a Hole

This must be around 1965-66. I am around 4-5 playing in my next door neighbor's house with my friend Umair, and somehow I had managed to climb up a large shahtoot (mulbery) tree in their courtyard. I could still feel my exhilaration that I felt as I went up and up from one branch to another. We have not yet started going to school and it was morning time before noon. Umair's mother was in the kitchen. Other siblings have gone to school....

We were living in 57/2 Wavell Lines, right in front of the Chaklala Railway Station. This was where I was born in 1962 and spent my early years. These were old British era barracks which were used as temporary accommodations for government servants waiting for the new construction in Islamabad. My father was in government service and had moved in to this Chaklala barrack home from Karachi, when the capital had shifted to Islamabad in 1960-61. Each barrack block had been converted into three separate units for family accommodations with three rooms each, with a veranda, kitchen and bathroom. There were only trees and empty ground between the railway station and the barracks where we were. Now this area has all been encroached.
Front side of Wavell Lines Barracks 50 years later in 2011.
These barracks were torn down in 2017-18

Friday, October 11, 2019

Covey's First Habit Advice to Proponents of Corruption Eradication First

Stephen Covey's first habit advice to anti-corruption proponents:
First habit of highly successful people states that focusing on circle of concern is counter productive. Instead focusing on your circle of Influence will cause it to expand, and this expansion will eventually take care of your concerns. "Process Efficiency" is in your circle of Influence and "corruption" is in your circle of Concern.


Incompetence and inefficiency is the Mother of Corruption and is the fundamental problem of third world countries

Had corruption been the cause of our problems, then IK's "clean" govt's anti-corruption drive should have been showing better results. IK's "clean" govt has falsified the hypothesis that Pakistan's plight is because of corruption! It is the inefficiency and incompetence, stupids! Incompetence, not corruption, is responsible for our woes and problem.
[To understand the context of this post, please read At What Cost! Why Compute Economic Costs of Faulty Political Decisions]

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Be Sensitive While Paying for Pizza (expensive meal) through a Domestic Worker

Did you order pizza (or an expensive meal) and asked your doorman (ملازم،چوکیدار) to pay the bill which ran into thousands (typically Rs 3000 or even much more) to the home-delivery rider? Did you realize that you sent a message to your چوکیدار that you are willing to spend one-half or one-third the amount of his 30 days day-night salary on a single-time meal? This door man's salary is subsistence for his 4-6 member family surviving somewhere in the interior.

Friday, October 4, 2019

Strategic Issues for Universities in Pakistan

During a strategic management meeting on last Sunday (29th September, 2019), a leading industrial group chairman gave the following advice to the higher management of the universities:

The future outlook is bleak. Don't expect any investment or industrialization during the next 3 years. We are in the process of investing about Rs 4 billion in an industrial venture in collaboration with a foreign concern in Malaysia. The cost of investment rose from Rs 4 Billion to Rs 7 billion driving out all our projections of the feasibility. Forget about any FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) coming in. The unemployment is going to increase and the jobs available for graduates is going to decrease substantially. Hence the only option is to focus on entrepreneurship.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Javier Poncela-Professor from Malaga Spain who Taught us Selfless International Collaboration

Very sad. It was very sad to learn that Dr. Javier Poncela, a Professor at the University of Malaga, Spain had passed away. Dr Poncela was a well known personality in the electrical engineering departments of the universities of Sindh. He became a popular academician in Pakistani community and was routinely invited for the conferences in Pakistan and he too invited and hosted several professors and students in conferences in Spain. He supervised numerous PhD and MS Pakistani students in Pakistan and at Spain. He had played a pivotal role in many European Union Projects in Pakistan including Erasmus Mundus.

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Only an Idiot does not take a U-Turn- Proud to be the Prime Minister of U-Turns

"I am proud to be the Prime Minister of U-Turns. Only an idiot does not take a U-Turn."
He has the audacity, impertinence and insensitivity to say this in Moharram when everyone takes inspiration from Hazrat Hussain who sacrificed his life and every thing but did not take the U-Turn offered by Yazid.


IK is the person who said "only an idiot does not take a U-Turn" during Moharram. By saying this he eulogozed Gen Niazi and slandered the sacrifices of Major Raja Aziz Bhatti, Maj Tufail, Rashid Minhas and other shaheeds who did not take a U-Turn and gave their lives. He slandered Hazrat Imam Husain's sacrifice too.

(Irfan Hyder Sep 16, 2019, 7:55 PM)

References:

  • https://www.dawn.com/news/1446168
  • https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2019/7/26/imran-khans-first-year-in-office-u-turns-and-oppression
  • An Endless Debate: https://www.dawn.com/news/1448355
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFG_B--U3_E&t=48s
  • https://www.globalvillagespace.com/pm-khan-under-fire-on-social-media-for-his-u-turn-statement/

Ghotki Rampage and Crowds Clamoring for the Head of 5000

Ghotki rampage occurs when government supporters encourage harassment and lawlessness. What do u expect from PTI juveniles who promote street killing of thousands on suspicion without trial, due process of law! During the run up to elections and till a few months ago. The pumped up juvenile brigade of the لونڈے، لپاڑے were vociferously promoting hanging and shooting of 5000 on mere suspicion of corruption without due process of law and without trial or charge or verdict from the courts. This has developed the mentality of rioting, vandalism, violence that we saw in the crowds on rampage in Ghotki. In this post I am talking about the mentality of street violence promoted by the likes of loud mouthed Faisal Vawda, Murad Saeed and others including our prime minister IK.

Supported by such frenzied and pumped up brigade, NAB went on a rampage incarcerating and imprisoning hundreds without trial, without charge, without due process of law, without considering constitutional rights of article 10A. They have shackled professors, not sparing even vice chancellors, some have even died in custody without trial.

The country is being ruled by CJPs since 1950s who have been godfathers of Doctrine of Necessity (DoN) another name of "might is right". Our current CJP and his "Conjoined twin" ex CJP Saqib Nisar as well as CJP Iftikhar Chaudhry and several others were DoN PCO godfathers. They legalized breaking of law and constitution by dictators at the altar of "might is right" DoN Doctrine which states "Necessity makes lawful that which is unlawful"! The most illustrious of CJP’s was Justice Munir who became the original DoN godfather in 1954-55 judgment.



Irfan Hyder updated his status.Sep 17, 2019, 5:10 AM

Work In Process

Examples of How Children Fail


In "How Children Fail", the acclaimed author John Holt describes how children stop using their mind, and fail. It is quite evident from the example pic below that the child was using his mind. Unfortunately, the teacher was grading "mindlessly" from the key that he had. This example is not an isolated case. There are scores of examples in the book and of various subjects where this occurs. With these kinds of wrong answers to wrongly phrased/formatted questions, the child learns that it is dangerous to use his mind. It is much better to be solving the problems "mindlessly" to get good grades, instead of "mindful application" which can often result in wrong answers. There are just too many students' papers to check by the teacher, and too many questions in each paper to give space to the teacher to drill down into the thinking of each child for each answer to see whether the logic in child's mind was correct or not. Too many failures like this and child stops thinking, and starts resorting to mindless application of formulae which also results in random grades. The child realizes that whether I use my mind or not, my grades are random. It is dangerous to use my mind, the child concludes. This is "How Children Fail" and we see so many people around us proudly proclaiming "I hate maths".

Historical Metaphors and Our Personality

عصائے کلیمی، رسم شبیری، جادو سامری، رسم سلمان و اویس قرنی، در خیبر، کار خلیلی، بحر ظلمات میں گھوڑے، لیلی' بھی ہم نشیں، پیچ و تاب رازی، غزنوی کی تڑپ، زلف ایاز، طرابلس کے شہید، سوز و ساز رومی، لالہ صحرائی، عطار ہو رومی ہو رازی ہو غزالی ہو، مدار قوت حیدری، وہ غازی وہ تیرے پراسرار بندے، قتل حسین، مرگ یزید، بدر و حنین، آب رود گنگا، حور و قصور، آتش نمرود، ساقی کوثر، .........
Aah!
Can you feel the resonance of these metaphors in your heart?
Those who forget history, are forgotten by history!


Psychology of Sweeping Generalizations:

Sweeping generalizations are typically false. None, All, Never, Ever are words that indicate tendency for over simplification. Example, all politicians are crooks, all men are untrustworthy, all women are weak, all scots are miserly, etc. For most such assertions especially relating to people and social sciences, it is often easy to find an exception that will negate the assertion. This in psychology is also known as "global thinking" that is considered to be a major determinant of depressive behaviors. 

کیا سب چور ہیں
اگر آپ کو ہر انسان غلط لگ رہا ہے تو پھر یہ دیکھیں کہ کہیں آپ تو غلط نہیں



This is a basic principle. A person who is a habitual liar can not conceive of any one except being liar. 

جھوٹے کو سب جھوٹے لگتے ہیں، دھوکہ باز کو سب دھوکہ باز لگتے ہیں، وعدہ خلاف کو سب لوگ uTurn کرتے ہوئے نظر آتے ہیں, اور چور کو ساری عوام چور نظر آتی ہے

This is often the problem with sweeping generalizations. If someone claims that "everyone" is corrupt then:
  1. "Everyone' also includes him, and the person making the claim must by definition also be corrupt, that is the person admits to him being corrupt. 
  2. By the same token, we can also be sure that he knows well his father, mother, uncles, brothers, sisters, and other close relatives, and therefore this "everyone" also includes these close relatives and hence, we can be sure that he is calling all of them corrupt. 
  3. Not only that but the sweeping generalization also indicates the person's psychological state where his mind is corrupted to an extent that he can't find even a single person in the whole country (200million+) who is not corrupt! The latter is a more problematic psychological state. 
  4. I for one know for sure at least hundred people in my contacts who I can vouch for that they are not corrupt. I can actually present such people as a counter example and submit them to any type of scrutiny. 
  5. I am also sure that there are some very authentic people in this group who have a much larger contact circle and they can present thousands about whom the corrupt title can not be ascribed. 



Case Study of Economic Hitmen of 2018 Pakistan

[To understand the context of this post, please read At What Cost! Why Compute Economic Costs of Faulty Political Decisions]
DoN (Doctrine of Necessity) Godfather Saqib Nisar along with NAB and IMF led IK government as Economic Hitmen: Their witch hunt of greatly respected Dr Saeed Akhtar PKLIC, Dr Ismail Shah PTA, Dr Umar Saif PITB, Engr Imran Shaikh PSO and others represent very carefully selected targets to create a mass disillusionment of leading professionals in public and private sector with the objective of stultifying the fundamentals of infrastructure growth and maturity.

  • Dr Saeed Akhtar was hit because of his leadership in health sector, his great respect in medical professionals and his deep links in the philanthropic expatriate resourceful community of doctors in USA and West. See Targeting of PKLI. His treatment resulted in scores of qualified doctors and surgeons who had come from  USA to return back. Contrast this destruction of Lahore institute with Sindh Government's Gambat Institute's success where hundreds of transplants are being done. 
  • Dr Ismail Shah was selected as a target to cripple and stultify the technical bureaucracy and highly qualified professionals in private sector working in telecommunications sector. This was done in a coordinated planned manner as seen from the various cases initiated on a single day as reported in  August 2018 Dawn  report.
  • Dr Umar Saif was selected as a target based on his excellent e-Government initiatives in public infrastructure for e-stamps, e-property registrations, e-monitoring of public education schools, teachers as well as public health and hospitals and e-tracking of medicines supply chain, dengue control dashboard connected with all government hospitals providing instantaneous figures, etc. Each such initiative was instrumental in providing efficiency in government and improving service delivery, and was being acquired and implemented in other provinces. He had to step down unceremoniously as his vision for increasing software exports and increasing government efficiency had to be stifled. 
  • Engr Imran Shaikh was selected because of his great respect in engineering sector and his commendable achievements. His humiliation at the hands of DoN PCO Judge Saqib Nisar was a perfect hit to demoralize the energy sector professionals who tirelessly worked to overcome the severe energy shortages of 20 hours load shedding in 2013 to energy surplus in 2018
  • Economic hit on CPEC
    • Opening salvo against CPEC was made by Razak Dawood immediately after the assumption of IK's government which laid the foundation of slowing down the entire economy. 
    • Despite his denials even in August 2020 CPEC has grinded down to a virtual standstill as per his unguarded comments as reported in FT. 
    • CPEC is now mired in neocolonialism and Pakistan-US relations arm twisting . This may very well be the reason for "mujhe kiyon nikala".
  • Economic hit on infrastructure of roads, motorways, Metropolitan mass transit......
    • IK stated policy on infrastructure and roads was to invest on human development. He could not understand why investment on infrastructure is necessary. He inflicted the damage to economy by stopping or slowing all infrastructure projects. Too little too late, it is now belatedly in 2021 that IK had been finally convinced by Shaukat Tareen to restart Sukkur-Hyderabad motor way and three other motorways. 
    • NAB's witch hunt of Multan Metro immediately after IK's government was installed eventually came to end dismally when China came down hard on Pakistan absolving the management of the project from any wrong doing. This was a huge embarrassment for the NAB effort. This witch hunt was instrumental in slowing down the CPEC project and creating a negative energy. 
  • NAB witchhunt against the performing bureaucrats. Targeted the bureaucrats who were instrumental in completing development projects in record time. Threatening of FBR officers. Threatening of bureaucrats. Massive transfers of bureaucracy. 
  • Economic hit on large scale manufacturing through the narrative of castigating and destroying the base of 80% revenues.....
  • Economic hit on infrastructure of micro and small enterprises of shanty shops, hawkers, پتھارے,....
  • Economic hit on infrastructure of philanthropic social service in the absence and abdication of government social services such as......
  • Promise to commit suicide but not go to IMF. Asad Umar in deep neogotiations. Replaced. Development of a culture of urgency as if the world is falling down. Crescendo of voices and pressures to sign the deal. Imported from World Bank, Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh who was the minister during Musharraf and finance minister in Zardari tenure. Import of Dr Raza Baqir from IMF who had devastated Egypt Economy measure by measure. Fired Younish Dhaga Finance Secretary who wanted to do hard negotiations with the IMF. Signing of the ignominous contract. Autonomy to SBP. Security of tenure of SBP governor.Immunity of SBP Governor from any future litigations. Petrol price to be equal to $rate. Massive devaluation. (Had never caused increase in exports, had always increased the costs of input, electricity, gas). Restriction on government to borrow from sbp. Only to borrow from the commercial banks. Reduction of development expenditure. 

*PTI Government Completes 200 Days*:
1- More than 400 development projects have been shut down.
2- Gas tariffs have increased 143%"...
3- Electrify tariffs for domestic users increased by 300%
4- Decrease of USD 1.75 billion in foreign reserves.
5- New taxes worth PKR 178.00 billion imposed in mini budget.
6- Internal and external debt volume increased by PKR 2,000.00 billion.
7- Inflation gone up to 8.2% -- almost more then double from last year.
8- Policy rate gone up to 10.25% from 5.75% last year.
9- Tax revenue growth worst in 20 years.
10- GDP growth in a fast decline with large scale manufacturing in negative, agriculture growth almost stagnant.
11- Fiscal deficit widens significantly compared to last year. Expenditure also significantly goes up.
12- Circular debt gone up from 1.1 tr to 1.6 tr --fastest increase in our history.
14- At the end of June, PTI govt will post the highest fiscal deficit (amount wise) in our history.
15- In spite of massive devaluation, exports increased only 2% in last 8 months. Compare that with 13% increase in last fiscal year.
16- Regarding debt increases, it’s the fastest accumulation in our history in the last 7 years
17- Unemployment is rising by the day and it is expected that by fiscal year end, 600,000 Pakistanis will have lost their jobs.
18- Stock Market considered as an the indicator of any economy has almost crashed n dead with no movement n no investment coming., comparing it to last 5 years when it was the Top Performing market of the world.
19- Most alarmingx news is that due to poor economy, MORE THAN 4 MILLION PAKISTANIS WILL GO BELOW POVERTY LINE.
Even as PTI supporters we feel embarrassed with these numbers. Gone completely out of its narrative regarding its commitment of 1 crore jobs and 50 lac housing units.....
May Allah Almighty have mercy on this nation.....!!!!

Monday, September 9, 2019

Myth of Science and Technology as Panacea for our Backwardness

The mythology that has been sold to the entire Muslim world and especially in Pakistan is that our backwardness is because of our backwardness in Science and Technology. Hence, S n T became the holy grail for progress and development. Everyone is willing to invest in Science and Technology, whether it has been Zia's government and Dr. Mahboob ul Haq's drive for S n T scholarships, or whether it is the political governments of the 90s or the Musharaff era (1999-2008) when Dr Ata ur Rahman was at the helm of S n T and HEC. Funds were lavished on S n T. The underlying assumption behind this myth was that the society would magically transform itself when we have x-thousand S n T PhDs; y-thousand professors with high impact factor; n-thousand Thompson Reuters IFJ publications and z-thousand state of the arts labs spread all over the country. After spending of hundreds of billions of tax payers money we find ourselves back to the starting point.

Covered Drains of Moenjodoro