Sunday, December 23, 2018

How to Eliminate Corruption in Pakistan: Simplicity and Transparency of Bureaucratic Procedures

Corruption is directly proportional to the complexity of  bureaucratic procedures and is inversely proportional to the transparency of bureaucratic procedures. The bureaucratic procedures are being made more complicated (eg. even a pencil purchase requires approval) and censorship is being imposed, which will further decrease transparency and will thus increase corruption. For a perfectly transparent process, Each and every step of the bureaucratic procedure must be transparent and visible on government websites for all cases without exception. All decisions for all cases must be visible to all.
Corruption is also dependent upon the bureaucratic paradigm: All developed countries with less corruption operate on the basis of "innocent unless proven guilty" paradigm. Hence their processes are simple and decision making is devolved and delegated to the operational level.
In Pakistan our operating bureaucratic paradigm is "guilty unless proven innocent". This is exemplified by the cjp's comment that even a "purchase of pencil will require judicial approval". With this paradigm, the bureaucratic processes become more hierarchical, centralized, slow and complicated. We are therefore destined to see the realization of our "self fulfilled prophecies" about corruption. Corruption will increase, not decrease. Hence, "guilty unless proven innocent" will only cause increase of corruption.  It will cause rate for bribe to increase.

Sunday, December 2, 2018

Is Criticism of Imran Khan as PM something new?

Saw this post: ‏عمران خان کا1،1دن گناجارہاہے
میں حیران ہوں اس ذہین ترین قوم پر پچھلے70سال کیسےگزرگئے
Here is the history for youth who do not read history. Pakistan has never been a bed of roses, even for military dictators. There were mass protests every year since 1950. Here are some from my memory: 1952 qadiani riots n Lahore Martial Law,  1954 bengal riots, 1955-7 five prime ministers changed, 1958 martial law, 1962 BD elections, 1964 Fatima Jinnah elections protests, 1965  Operation Gibraltar leading to war with India,  1967 Karachi language riots, 1969 sugar price hike riots, 1970-71 lost half Pakistan, 1972 Balochistan ptotests and language riots, 1973 anti qadiani movement,  and Pakistan constitution, 1974 mass protests, 1976-77 elections and pna movement closures for several months with curfew, 1977 gen Zia's martial law, 1979 Bhutto hanging closures, 1980-81 alzlfiqar, 1982-83mrd movement, 1985 till today nearly every week of every month there were mass killings, blasts, protests,...
(pl add and fill in the blanks in comments. I will update here)

Overcoming Forex/IMF Problem through Incentivizing Small Producers of Solar Energy

How to resolve Dollar PKR devaluation problem and avoid IMF loan.
I think PTI Imran Khan's strategy to focus on small producers has a lot of potential. Here is what can bring tabdeeli through massive generation of jobs and overcoming the foreign exchange issue of rising dollar and devaluation of rupee. I think experts in PTI with ability of out-of-the-box creative thinking must look at this proposal.
Solar incentives can create massive saving on the $10bn/yr oil-gas imports. It can create at least 2m home entrepreneurs and other supporting businesses along with pumping and generation of economic activity of Rs 4 trillion!
Instead of IMF bail out, PTI can go for a massive crowd funding investment in energy sector. Here is how:
PTI should give the same subsidy to home solar energy producers on self generation of solar energy and net metering equal to that offered to PPIs for energy generation from wind or gas. Government must ensure availability of low cost and high quality solar panels through Incentivizing their imports or their local production. I am sure at least 20 lac home owners can easily invest around Rs 20 lac each in solar generation for their homes with their surplus energy getting pumped into the grid. This is 20lacs x Rs 20lacs = Rs 4 trillion investment. It will generate 20 lac entrepreneurial jobs generated by home owners who have become self employed through this. In addition there would be at least 5 lacs to 1m support jobs of installers, maintainers, equipment traders, importers, suppliers. It will also say good bye to at least $4-5bn of imported oil n gas for energy sector. This is going to be a recurring saving and will substantially improve our balance of payment woes, strengthen the rupee, reduce devaluation. Furthermore, it will increase our self-worth, will reduce meddling of IMF and World Bank in the manipulation of our economy. We will also become resilient to single point of failures often witnessed due to the problems of distribution.
Who will lead the resistance to change. This is going to be Oil lobby who are going to scream and oppose this scheme. Oil and Gas Sector vested interests and IMF/World Bank type big lenders will be most worried and will try their bests to throttle the initiative.