Sunday, June 3, 2018

Kalabagh Dam Use for Inciting Smaller Provinces against Federation-Technical Feasibility vs Trust-Deficit Issue

The opposition for big dams like Kala Bagh Dam (KBD) originates in smaller provinces from the same concerns and mistrust that we have for India building big dams up stream on Indus because it hurts Pakistan's lower riparian rights when the water is diverted away from us without our consent and approval. It is primarily a trust-deficit problem and is not technical or financial feasibility problem that many people typically think.

Opposition to KBD originates from the mistrust that arose in smaller provinces from not abiding by the promises made when Mangla Dam was being built. For example, the promise of not using a major link canal except during floods. It was feared that the link canal will divert water away from Sindh which actually happened as the land around the link canal got allotted to most powerful land mafia that forced the canal to remain open through out the year creating massive mistrust in Sindh n Balochistan. You need to read history why there is extreme mistrust in Sindh and other provinces for the lower riparian rights when water from big dams is not allowed to reach them.

Hence, campaign for big dams/KBD without obtaining consensus from smaller provinces is nothing but RAW's scheme to use politics to open a pandora box and further destabilize Pakistan by making the smaller provinces to rise in protest against the federation! Reviving KBD issue anew, now, just before 2018 elections, without trust building, appears to have been designed to infuriate smaller provinces against the bigger province, which seems to support RAW's and Indian agenda more than any pro-Pakistan agenda. 

It seems that RAW has compromised the psyche of political opponents and is using their political inclinations to sway sway the narrative in a direction that advances India's agenda. Currently, PTI youths are after Punjab leader, and would like any reason to bash NS and SS. What better reason than to use the water scarcity fear and KBD issue to slam Punjab, and hence its leadership!

 FB is a highly psychological n dangerous game, and I know it because I have been researching in this area. The idea is to use the prejudices, motivations and psychology of people to drive them in the direction of a carefully crafted bait. They managed Trump to win US elections with just $100k injection of funds in the FB promotions. They contrived to sway the decisions of precariously balanced voters in certain key states. Cambridge Analytica identified these precariously hanging votes of a few thousands and just before elections turned their votes in the direction of Trump through carefully crafted fury inducing news. If they could do this in USA, they can very well do it in Pakistan with a much smaller amount of $50k or even less to infuriate the smaller provinces against the big brother, and lead them to violence and disturbance. 

We saw how much Dictator Gen Musharraf tried hard to sell KBD during his all encompassing rule, but he failed even though he was at the height of his power. He miserably failed to convince the smaller provinces towards the feasibility of KBD. Dictator Gen Musharraf failed because he did not "build" trust through concrete measures and decisions. What makes gullible FB warriors think that this campaign will work today just before the  highly charged 2018 elections when things are being heated by RAW to meet India's nefarious designs. 

This is time for thinking people to take a step back, and try to understand the design of enemies and agenda of RAW.

Please, please note that KBD is not a technical/financial feasibility issue. It is actually a TRUST deficit issue. I repeat, it is a TRUST deficit issue. No amount of exhortations to the technical and financial benefits make any sense when there is  trust-deficit. Problem with KBD proponents is that they think it is not materializing because people do not understand its technical and financial feasibility. I call such people "dam-fools" who fail to appreciate the importance of removing the TRUST-deficit in order to resolve the stalemate! 

Case Against Kalabagh Dam

As one case see from these references that the case against Kalabagh Dam from the point of view of smaller provinces is too complex. It is complex because the major issue is that of trust-deficit. The issues are quite similar to those faced by big dams all over the world as seen in the next section.
کراچی سے لے کر گوادر تک ساری ساحلی پٹی خالی پڑی ھے۔ تھر، جنوبی پنجاب میں سارا سال سورج آگ برساتا ھے۔ ھنزہ سے لے کر ھمارے پوٹھوار تک سارا پانی نشیب کی طرف بہتا ھے۔۔۔ دنیا کی کوی عقلمند قوم ھوتی تو ساحلی لہروں، سولر اور چھوٹے چھوٹے ڈیم بنا کر اب تک صاف ستھری ، الودگی سے پاک بجلی کے پیداواری منصوبے لگا چکی ھوتی۔ ھم وہ ڈنگر اور اپنی نسلوں کے دشمن ھیں کہ تھر میں کوئلہ جلا کر ، اپنی فضا میں زہر بھر کر، اپنا گرم ترین ملک، مزید سکھا، جلا کر بجلی پیدا کر رھے ھیں، بڑے ڈیم دنیا بھر میں اب کہی بھی سیجسٹ نہی کیے جاتے، اس سے دریاوں کا قدرتی بہاو رک کر لاکھوں ھیکٹر کی زمین سیم، تھور اور زیر آب جا کر برباد ھو جاتی ھے۔۔۔۔ ھم ابھی بھی اس ایک کالا باغ ڈیم کو رو رھے ھیں۔۔۔ کالا باغ ڈیم بھی بنا لینا پہلے ھنزہ سے لے کر جہلم تک چھوٹے ڈیم بنا لو، زیر زمین پانی کا لیول بھی بلند ھو جاے گا جسے اپ نے شہروں میں کنکریٹ ، تارکول بچھا کر برباد کر ڈالا ھے (کیونکہ بارش کا پانی زمین میں جذب ھونے کے بجاے ، سب پختہ نالوں میں بہہ جاتا ھے) ۔۔۔دوستوں یہ پنجاب، سندھ یا خیبر کا معاملہ نہی ھے۔ سوال یہ ھے کہ کیا چھوٹے پراجیکٹس لگا کر ھم وہاں مقامی آبادی کیلیے روزگار کیوں نہی پیدا کر سکتے؟ ھم وہاں مقامی آبادیوں کو ان چھوٹے پراجیکٹس کے اندر کیوں نہی شیرھولڈر بنا سکتے؟ چھوٹے منصوبوں کیلیے کم لاگت درکار ھے۔۔۔ انکو پہلے کیا جاے۔
تھر، چولستان اور جنوبی پنجاب میں سولر پارک اور بلوچستان اور کراچی کے ساحلوں پر سمندری لہروں سے چلنے والی ٹرباینز ۔۔۔ یہ کالا باغ ڈٰم کا شوشہ صرف اس قوم کو احمق بنانے کیلیے ھے تاکہ جو اصل کام ھو سکتے ھیں، وہ بھی نا ھوں۔۔۔ جرنل ایوب، جرنل یحیی،جرنل ضیا، جرنل مشرف نا بنا سکے، بھٹو جیسا مقبول عوامی لیڈر نا بنوا سکا،،، عمران خان جیسا لیڈر سندھ جا کر کہتا ھے کہ ھم کالا باغ ڈٰیم نہی بننے دیں گے۔۔۔ اپ سوشل میڈیا پر پوسٹیں کر کے ڈیم بنوا دیں گے؟َ اپکی سوچ کو سو توپوں کی سلامی۔۔۔۔
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Problems with Big Dams

Before jumping into for and against positions on KBD, I implore all to research big dams issue and lower riparian rights issue. Big dams and canals are controversial all over the world. Why?
"By 2015, the dam industry had choked more than half of the Earth's major rivers with some 57,000 large dams. The consequences of this massive engineering program have been devastating. The world's large dams have wiped out species; flooded huge areas of wetlands, forests and farmlands; and displaced tens of millions of people.
The "one-size-fits-all" approach to meeting the world's water and energy needs is also outdated: better solutions exist. While not every dam causes huge problems, cumulatively the world's large dams have replumbed rivers in a massive experiment that has left the planet's freshwaters in far worse shape than any other major ecosystem type, including tropical rainforests. In response, dam-affected communities in many parts of the world are working to resolve the legacies of poorly planned dams. Elsewhere (and especially in North America), communities are starting to take down dams that have outlived their usefulness, as part of a broader river restoration movement." [Problems with Big Dams

Dam Basics

Fact sheets:

Pakistan's Alternatives to Big Dams

کچھ دنوں سے کالاباغ ڈیم کے لیے مہم شروع ھوئی ھے۔۔ جو سندھ ، خیبر پختونخواہ اور پنجاب کے بیچ ایک متنازعہ ایشو ھے۔۔
میری گزارش ھے کہ متنازعہ پراجیکٹس سے پہلے مندرجہ ذیل ادھورے پراجیکٹس پر توجہ دی جائے۔ جو نہایت فائدہ مند اور غیر متنازعہ ہے   ںا 
1) Tarbela extention4 hydropower electricity production 1410 mega watts
2)Tarbela extention5 hydropower electricity production  1320 mega watts ہری پور
3)Golen gol hydropower project electricity production 106 mega watts  چترال
4) Keyal khwar hydropower electricity production 128 mega watts  کوہستان
5) Dasu dam electricity production 4320 mega watts  کوہستان
6) Suki kinar hydropower electricity production 870 mega watts مانسہرہ 
7) Bara dam electricity production 5.8 megawatts خیبر 
😎 Lawi hydropower electricity  69 megawatts  چترال 
9) Munda dam  electricity production 740 megawatts مہمند
10) Lower spatgan hydropower electricity production 665 megawatts کوہستان 
11) Middle palas hydropower electricity production 373 megawatts  کوہستان 
12) Upper palas hydropower electricity production 160 megawatts  کوہستان
13) Thakot hydropower electricity production 2800 megawatts بٹگرام 
14) Patan hydropower electricity production 2200 megawatts                  کوہستان
15) Tank zam hydropower electricity production 25.5 megawatts            ٹانک
16) Nekherdim paur hydropower electricity production 80 megawatts       چترال
17) Turtonus uzghor hydropower electricity production 58 megawatts      چترال
18) Sharmai hydropower electricity production 115 megawatts          چترال
19) Madian hydropower electricity production 157 megawatts          سوات 
20) Asrit kedam hydropower electricity production 215 megawatts         سوات 
21) Kalam asrit hydropower electricity production 197 megawatts        سوات 
22) Gabral hydropower electricity production 101 megawatts        سوات 
23) Kaigah hydropower electricity production  548 megawatts        کوہستان
24) Shago sin hydropower electricity production 132 megawatts                 چترال
25)   Matiltan hydropower electricity production    84 megawatts                    سوات 
26)    Naran dam    electricity    production    188 megawatts          مانسہرہ
27)     Gorband dam  electricity production    50  megawatts                        شنگلہ 
28)    Mojigram shagoor  hydropower electricity production 50 megawatts  چترال
29) Astar rabooni dam  electricity production 50 megawatts                            چترال
30)  Arkari goldan  hydropower electricity production 50 megawatts        چترال 
31) Ranolia dam hydropower electricity production   17 megawatts        چترال 
32) Machi dam electricity production       2.6    megawatts                مردان
33) Daral khwar dam  electricity production     36 megawatts    سوات 
34)  Sharingal dam electricity production     50  megawatts       دیر 
35) Patrak dam  electricity production      60  megawatts  سوات 
36)    Segokatch dam electricity production    60  megawatts           چترال 
37 ) Shushagi zhendoll hydropower electricity production  144 megawatts   چترال 
38)  Karang hydropower electricity production 458 megawatts        مانسہر
39) Koto hydropower project electricity production 40 megawatts ضلع دیر
40) warsak dam modifications hydropower electricity production 132 megawatts

گلگت بلتستان کی 33638 میگاواٹ کی 15 پراجیکٹس
1) Dia mer basha dam electricity production 4500 megawatts     چیلاس
2) Naltar V Hydropower  electricity production    14.4 megawatts        گلگت
3) Naltar III hydropower electricity production 16 megawatts     گلگت 
4) Shagarthan hydropower electricity production 26 megawatts      سکردو 
5) Hanzel hydropower electricity production    20 megawatts           گلگت 
6) BUNJI HYDRO POWER electricity production 7100 megawatts      استور 
7) Phandar hydropower electricity production  81 megawatts    غزر
😎 Basho hydropower electricity production  28 megawatts     سکردو
9) Harpo hydropower electricity production  34.5 megawatts   سکرد
10)  KATZARAH DAM  electricity production     15000 megawatts                سکردو skardu
11) Thack hydropower electricity production 4 megawatts      چیلاس
12) Skardu dam electricity production 1600 megawatts      سکردو
13)   Tangir hydropower electricity production  15 megawatts   گلگت
14)  Yulbo hydropower electricity production 3000 megawatts     گلگت 
15)   Tungus hydropower electricity production  2200 megawatts      گلگت 

کشمیر کی 5945 میگاواٹ بجلی کی 17 منصوبے 
1) Nelum jehum hydropower electricity production 969 megawatts   مظفرآباد
2) Patrind hydropower electricity production 147 megawatts        مظفرآباد
3) Gul pur hydropower electricity production 102  megawatts  
4)  Kohala hydropower electricity production   1100  megawatts     مظفرآباد
5) Kotli hydropower electricity production  102 megawatts    کوٹلی
6)  Athmuqam hydropower electricity production    350 megawatts  
7) Rajhdani hydropower electricity production  132 megawatts           کوٹلی
😎 Mahl hydropower electricity production 590 megawatts    
9) Galeter hydropower electricity production 1 megawatts  
10) Azad pattan hydropower electricity production 650 megawatts     سدهنوتی
11) Sehar hydropower electricity production 130 megawatts  
12) Chakothi hattian hydropower electricity production 500 megawatts  مظفرآباد
13) Jagran II hydropower electricity production 48 megawatts     نیلم
14) Nagdar hydropower electricity production 25 megawatts   نیلم
15)  Duwarian hydropower electricity production    29 megawatts  نیلم
16)  Mangla modifications project electricity production  350 megawatts
17) karot hydropower electricity production 720 megawatts.
بہ شکریہ

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